Lido & stETH Weekly Data Report — Week of October 5–11, 2026

1. Executive summary

Eighth snapshot, and the first in which the price did the damage and the protocol did not. ETH closed at $2,508.04, −6.9% close-to-close — the worst weekly print in our record — after a $1.19 billion liquidation cascade on October 9 and a five-session ETF outflow of −$542.06M. Underneath the tape the network read better, not worse: the staking board finally refreshed and stepped up (base APR 2.51% from 2.18%), Lido printed the stETH yield at 2.23%, and the peg held inside an eleven-basis-point band through a 9.8% price range.

Two disclosures frame this edition. First, the queue moved the wrong way from expectation. The exit queue was supposed to drain once MetaMask's validators left by October 7; instead it rose to 964,365 ETH by the October 10 read, while the entry queue fell to 1,379,437 ETH — shrinking the buffer between them by 37.8%. Second, the staking board changed source. The Ebunker series resumed (week ending October 11: 43,865,190 ETH staked, 36.34% ratio, 2.51% base APR), so the register that was carried for two editions now prints fresh. The validator-count row changes series with that refresh — from the carried Ebunker read to the validatorqueue.com active count (851,608) — and the two are not the same measurement, so the row is labelled rather than differenced. The October 4 price baseline was re-read in the same session as the October 11 prints, and every cross-week number below runs on that single basis.

Source: DefiLlama coingecko feed (Oct 4 and Oct 11 prints, one read session); DefiLlama protocol history; SoSoValue final daily prints; validatorqueue.com; Ebunker Ethereum staking weekly (week ending Oct 11, 2026); Lido statements (Oct 6, 2026).

2. Week-over-week table

Source: DefiLlama coingecko feed and protocol history, one read session (Oct 4 and Oct 11 points); SoSoValue final prints; validatorqueue.com (Oct 4 and Oct 10 reads); Ebunker weekly (week ending Oct 11, 2026) for the staking register. LDO market cap on the 834.151M supply basis (DERIVED). Rows marked re-read carry a same-session restatement; the validator row changes series and claims no change.

3. The week's tape and the peg, day by day

ETH opened the window at its high and never reclaimed it. Daily closes: $2,729.49 (Oct 5), $2,703.70 (Oct 6), $2,611.25 (Oct 7), $2,576.78 (Oct 8), $2,483.43 (Oct 9, the low), $2,492.98 (Oct 10), $2,508.04 (Oct 11). The range was 9.8% wide — the widest in the record, against last week's 2.3% — and the loss was 6.9% close-to-close. The October 9 session alone took ETH from $2,576.78 to $2,483.43, a −3.6% day inside a $1.19 billion cross-asset liquidation cascade.

LDO's path tracked the beta and added its own noise: $0.46958 → $0.45909 → $0.44316 → $0.46801 → $0.41572 (Oct 9) → $0.43024 → $0.43078, a −6.7% week that briefly went positive on October 8 before the cascade took it lower. Realized daily volatility on LDO again ran several times ETH's, which is the recurring signature of a governance token whose protocol data and token price are only loosely coupled.

The stETH/ETH ratio, on this week's single-read basis, spent the week inside a tight band despite the drawdown: −0.63bp (Oct 4), −4.15bp (Oct 5), −2.71bp (Oct 6), +3.45bp (Oct 7, the week's high), +1.59bp (Oct 8), −10.76bp (Oct 9, the week's low, ratio 0.99892), −1.50bp (Oct 10) and −1.85bp (Oct 11 close; ratio 0.99981). The band ran from a +3.45bp high to a −10.76bp low — inside ±11bp, and narrower than last week's ±16bp — and it never approached the multi-hundred-basis-point discounts a genuine redemption run produces. The deepest print, −10.76bp, landed on the liquidation day and recovered within twenty-four hours.

Source: stETH, ETH, LDO and BTC series, DefiLlama coingecko feed, same-session prints (Oct 4 and Oct 11 points read together); liquidation and intraday levels per BlockFence and Lumida News (Oct 9, 2026).

4. Staking and the two queues

The board refreshed, and the 39bp fall reversed. After two editions carried at 2.18%, the Ebunker series resumed and printed a network base APR of 2.51% for the week ending October 11 — a +33bp step that restores most of September's 39bp decline and confirms the 2.18% print as a one-week aberration rather than a regime. The same weekly put total staked ETH at 43,865,190, the staking ratio at 36.34%, the stETH 7-day average APR at 2.53%, and last week's net issuance at +20,214.32 ETH (annualizing to about 0.87%, DERIVED). Lido's own October 6 statement printed the stETH annualized reward rate at 2.23%, at or above its level since August, which anchors the user-net side of the same story.

The queues tell the week's real story, and every print is inside the window. On one consistent series (validatorqueue.com), the exit queue rose from 812,887 ETH (Oct 4) to 964,365 ETH (Oct 10) — an increase of 151,478 ETH — with the printed wait stretching to 16 days 18 hours. The entry queue moved the other way, from 1,480,361 ETH to 1,379,437 ETH (−100,924 ETH; wait 23 days 23 hours). The buffer between them — the entry surplus that made the two queues look interchangeable — fell by 252,402 ETH, or 37.8%, to 415,072 ETH. Deeper in the window, the October 5 read had the exit queue at 786,000 ETH and the entry queue near 1.5 million ETH; the October 7 read put the exit queue at 822,405 ETH. All of those sit between the two endpoints and none contradicts them.

The churn arithmetic still governs and still agrees with the printed waits: at the protocol ceiling near 57,600 ETH per day, 964,365 ETH needs 16.7 days and 1,379,437 ETH needs 23.9 days — matching the printed 16d18h and 23d23h to within hours. Adding the roughly 7.4-day withdrawal sweep makes the full round trip about 24 days in both directions. Active validators stood at 851,608, holding about 43.7 million ETH, or roughly 35.8% of supply (Ebunker's 36.34% ratio uses its own denominator); the exit queue equals about 2.2% of that stake and the entry queue about 3.2%.

Source: Ebunker Ethereum staking weekly (week ending Oct 11, 2026: base APR, stETH 7-day, staked total, ratio, issuance window); Lido statement (Oct 6, 2026: stETH APR 2.23%); validatorqueue.com via CryptoCompass and CryptoTicker (Oct 10 read) and Cointribune (Oct 5 read); exit-queue mid-window level per KuCoin research and CryptoSlate via SpendNode (Oct 7–8, 2026).

5. ETF flows, session by session

BlackRock's ETHA carried most of the week's exit at about $477.04M. Bitcoin funds were not spared: US spot BTC ETFs shed −$681.10M across the same five sessions, led by FBTC (−$380.36M) and ARKB (−$207.21M). The pattern — both complexes bleeding in the same week — reframes the prior edition's ETH-specific framing into a broader risk-off retreat. Cumulative net inflows into the ETH complex since launch sit near $13.5 billion even after the streak. Source note: this edition's flow table uses SoSoValue; edition seven used Farside, whose prior-week net (−$138.1M) matched SoSoValue's (−$138.02M) to within rounding, and the series is disclosed as changed.

Source: SoSoValue daily and weekly flow tables (Oct 5–9, 2026) via Hodl.Press and Asset Market News; ETHA/ETHE session detail via TokenPost, cited by CoinMarketCap (Oct 7–9, 2026); source-series change versus edition seven disclosed above.

6. Supply, share of stake, and one figure still withheld

Still withheld. Our supply×price market-cap cross-check runs on a stETH supply input whose last dated print is September 9 — now over a month old, and the fourth consecutive edition without a fresh print. Edition seven suspended that check rather than run a stale input; this edition keeps it suspended, and the withheld item stays in the ledger (section 9). The aggregator conflict between the CryptoCompare-sourced 9.66M print and lido.fi's lower counter also remains unresolved.

What replaces it, again. The same quantity is derived from two in-window prints: Lido's TVL at the October 11 read is $24,301,821,424, and the ETH print for the same session is $2,508.04, implying 9,689,575 ETH under Lido's management (DERIVED), down 156,327 ETH from the October 4 derivation (9,845,902 ETH). Set against the 43,865,190 ETH staked network-wide on the Ebunker board, Lido's share of stake works out to 22.09% (DERIVED), versus 22.45% on the October 4 basis — a decline of about 36 basis points that is smaller than the 8.3% TVL drop because both sides of the ratio fell with the same price. stETH's derived market capitalization is $24.22B on the unchanged 9,659,594 supply print.

Issuance and burn. The Ebunker weekly's issuance window refreshed for the first time in two editions: net issuance of +20,214.32 ETH over seven days, annualizing to roughly 0.87% (DERIVED) — essentially unchanged from the carried 0.86%. The burn side keeps the carried pair that frames it: a 30-day average base fee of 0.179 gwei against the 13.384 gwei needed to hold supply flat, a ratio of roughly 1/75. Those are thresholds, not this week's prints, and they are labelled as such.

Source: Lido TVL history and ETH print, DefiLlama, same read session (Oct 11 points); Ebunker weekly (week ending Oct 11, 2026) for staked total and the issuance window; carried base-fee and breakeven figures per their Sep 2 print dates; stETH supply per CryptoCompare via TickerReport (Sep 9, 2026).

7. The sector board, refreshed

Fourth consecutive fully fresh board, and the first in the record with a red majority. The split is structural, not idle: every liquid-staking row fell roughly 7–8%, tracking ETH's own price decline almost exactly because their TVL is denominated in ETH; the lending rows, whose books hold a mix of assets, fell far less (Aave −3.3%, Morpho essentially flat, Sky up 1.4%). Lido's −8.3% is a touch worse than ether.fi's −7.7% and Binance Staked ETH's −6.9% because of the MetaMask outflow layering onto the price move. Ethereum chain TVL slipped −3.5% to $51.39B.

Source: api.llama.fi protocol-history reads, one session, Oct 4 and Oct 11 points; Ethereum chain TVL per DefiLlama historical chain TVL.

8. Macro and the carry table

The September FOMC minutes, released October 7, showed most officials expected another rate increase before the end of 2026 — a hawkish read that collided with the market's own post-jobs-report assumption of a hold. Yields repriced: the 10-year Treasury touched a 24-year intraday high near 5.34% before settling in the 5.24–5.28% area, and the 30-year pushed toward 5.68%. The October 28 meeting remains the next scheduled input, and after this week's minutes its odds are less settled than they looked on October 2.

The carry table, on a 10 ETH position at the October 11 print ($25,080): at the 2.22% user-net mid-point the position earns about $557 a year. The 3-month T-bill at 3.92% (Sep 1 print, carried) returns $983; the 2-year at 4.34% (Aug 28, carried) returns $1,088; the 10-year at 5.26% (Oct 5 print) returns $1,319. The carry gaps are −$426, −$532 and −$762 respectively — all three still negative, and the 10-year leg has now widened as the long end repriced higher. This week reversed the direction of travel the jobs report had set: the macro leg moved against staking again.

Source: FOMC September minutes (released Oct 7, 2026) and Treasury levels via BlockFence and the Gate Ventures weekly recap (Oct 5, 2026); index context per Gate Ventures; carry rows carried with their print dates; position value DERIVED on the DefiLlama coingecko feed Oct 11 print.

9. Data-quality ledger

Every open item this edition carries, stated plainly. (1) Same-feed restatement. The October 4 prints were re-read in this session and came in slightly below what edition seven published: ETH $2,694.14 → $2,692.58, LDO $0.46354 → $0.46188 (stETH unchanged at $2,692.41). Every cross-week number in this edition uses the same-session restatement; edition seven's pages keep their prints. (2) Supply cross-check withheld, fourth edition. The stETH supply input is dated September 9; the supply×price comparison stays suspended rather than run on a month-old figure. (3) Aggregator conflict on stETH supply. The 9.66M CryptoCompare-sourced print and lido.fi's lower counter remain unresolved. (4) Cumulative rewards-paid conflict. Our carried $2.107B (lido.fi) still sits below the $3.085B our August edition carried for the same cumulative counter — a counter that cannot fall, flagged open. (5) Queue-tracker conflict. On October 10 the exit queue read 964,365 ETH on validatorqueue.com's figures and near 870,000 ETH on a separate same-week reading; both are printed in section 4 and the direction is common to both. (6) Exit-queue peak conflict (carried). Edition seven printed the October 2 peak as 773,447 ETH (COIN360) with a >850,000 ETH headline elsewhere; the same divergence persists in the current reading and is not resolved. (7) Validator-count series change. The active-validator row moves from the carried Ebunker read (906,000) to validatorqueue.com's 851,608; the two use different definitions and cannot be differenced, so no change is claimed.

Source: ledger items trace to the sections and sources above; withheld and conflicted items are retained rather than adjusted to fit a cleaner table.

10. Method notes

Two method points for anyone reproducing the numbers. One read session per comparison. The October 4 and October 11 points for ETH, stETH, LDO and BTC were pulled together in a single session so no cross-week figure mixes prints taken on different days; the feed re-prints its own history, which is why the October 4 baseline differs by a few basis points from edition seven's. Derived values are labelled and reproducible. ETH under Lido management is TVL ÷ ETH price on the same read; share of stake is that figure over the Ebunker staked total; share-of-stake and the carry gaps carry their inputs in the text.

Source: site_data.py (Snapshot #8, as of Oct 11, 2026); the basis note and the edition archive.

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